Shanghai 34°C July 11 Temperature Seen Unlikely by Traders
Traders assign a mere 2% chance to Shanghai hitting 34°C on July 11, reflecting broad skepticism about this specific temperature forecast.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 11?
Polymarket traders price this at 2% (flat over 24h). Volume: $996.
The Polymarket prediction market for Shanghai's highest temperature on July 11 currently shows a strong consensus: traders believe it's highly improbable the city will hit exactly 34°C. The 'YES' side is priced at a flat 2%, indicating virtually no movement in conviction over the past 24 hours. With a total volume of $996, the market has seen some activity, but the low probability suggests a lack of serious contention or significant new information.
This market resolves 'YES' if the officially recorded highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11, 2026, is precisely 34°C. Any other temperature, whether higher or lower, will cause the market to resolve 'NO'. The market closes on July 11, 2026, the day of the event. A trader buying 'YES' at 2% is betting that this exact temperature will occur, and would receive $100 for every $2 they invested if the prediction comes true.
Predicting an exact temperature for a specific future date is inherently challenging due to the numerous variables influencing daily weather patterns. While July is typically one of Shanghai's hottest months, with average high temperatures often in the low to mid-30s Celsius, hitting an exact integer value like 34°C is a precise forecast. Local weather bureaus and meteorological organizations will be the authoritative source for the official temperature reading.