Aggregate Markets
We continuously monitor prediction markets including Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and betting odds to capture the collective wisdom of forecasters.
About The Forecast Herald
Probability-first journalism powered by prediction markets and AI. Every headline is a probability. Every claim is calibrated.
Our Mission
We believe the future of journalism lies in quantified predictions. By combining the wisdom of prediction markets with AI-powered analysis, we deliver news that tells you not just what happened, but how likely events are to occur.
What We Do
AI-Powered Analysis
Our AI systems analyze probability shifts, identify significant market movements, and generate probability-first headlines that lead with the numbers.
Human Oversight
Every AI-generated article passes through editorial review before publication. We maintain rigorous quality standards and full transparency about our methods.
Our Data Sources
Polymarket
US Politics, Crypto, Global Events
Kalshi
Economics, Weather, News
Metaculus
Science, Technology, Long-term
Manifold Markets
Community Predictions
The Odds API
Sports, Entertainment
Alpha Vantage
Stocks, Forex, Crypto
Our Commitment to Transparency
- Every article displays calibration scores for its sources
- AI-generated content is clearly labeled and human-reviewed
- Probabilities are updated in real-time from multiple sources
- We track our accuracy and publish our calibration results
Want to learn more?
Explore our methodology, data sources, and calibration process in detail.
How It Works