The Forecast Herald

Economics

Rates, inflation and growth — what traders think happens next, in probabilities.

1%– unchanged in 24 hours

Polymarket Sees Minimal Chance of 50+ BPS Rate Cut by Fed

Traders assign a mere 2% probability to the Federal Reserve implementing a significant rate cut by October 2026, indicating strong conviction against aggressive easing.

  1. 14%– unchanged in 24 hoursPolymarket Traders Doubt June Inflation Hits 3.9%
  2. 7%– unchanged in 24 hoursPolymarket Traders See Low Odds For Narrow Brazil Inflation Target
  3. 38%– unchanged in 24 hoursBrazil 2026 Inflation Seen Unlikely to Land in Narrow Range
  4. 27%– unchanged in 24 hoursJapan Q2 GDP Growth Target Sees Low Confidence
  5. 2%– unchanged in 24 hoursJuly Inflation At 3.7% Seen As Long Shot On Polymarket
  6. 11%– unchanged in 24 hoursUK 2026 GDP Contraction Odds Remain Low on Polymarket
  7. 26%– unchanged in 24 hoursSouth Korea 2026 Inflation Seen Below 3%
  8. 7%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill Canada’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?
  9. 39%– unchanged in 24 hoursTrieste: Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzler
  10. 0%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill U.S. inflation be more than 0.4% from October to November 2022?
  11. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its February meeting?
  12. 100%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its February meeting?
  13. Fed Rate Cut: March Odds Hit 78%
  14. Recession in 2026 Narrative Collapses: 45% to 28%
  15. Bitcoin Exceeds $100K by June: 34% Probability
  16. Inflation Falls Below 3% by Q4: 67% Consensus