The Forecast Herald
Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Team to Take First Corner
50%—0%
Game Spread: Guiomar Maristany (-4.5) vs Berfu Cengiz (+4.5)
50%—0%
FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs. FK Kharkiv: 1st Half O/U 1.5
50%—0%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5)
50%—0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of September 14 above $670?
50%—0%
Subscribe
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race Ahead of July 2026 Deadline
Tech

Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race Ahead of July 2026 Deadline

Traders are all but certain Anthropic will boast the top AI model by July 2026, with current odds reflecting near-universal confidence in its market leadership.

Bitcoin Price Expected to Hold Above $58,000 Ahead of July 11 Close
Crypto

Bitcoin Price Expected to Hold Above $58,000 Ahead of July 11 Close

Guardians World Series Hopes Remain Dim on Polymarket
Sports

Guardians World Series Hopes Remain Dim on Polymarket

Farage Clacton By-Election Win Appears All But Certain
Politics

Farage Clacton By-Election Win Appears All But Certain

OpenAI Valuation Outlook Holds Steady Below $750 Billion Mark
Tech

OpenAI Valuation Outlook Holds Steady Below $750 Billion Mark

Bitcoin $120,000 Target Remains Distant on Polymarket
Crypto

Bitcoin $120,000 Target Remains Distant on Polymarket

World War Three Odds Hold Steady Against Grand Theft Auto VI Release
Entertainment

World War Three Odds Hold Steady Against Grand Theft Auto VI Release

Politics

See All →
95%– unchanged in 24 hours

Farage Clacton By-Election Win Appears All But Certain

Traders are pricing a 96% probability that Nigel Farage will win the Clacton by-election, reflecting strong conviction in a victory that could reshape the UK political landscape.

  1. 0%– unchanged in 24 hoursMichelle Bolsonaro's 2026 Presidential Bid Sees Zero Polymarket Support
  2. 0%– unchanged in 24 hoursEric Trump Nomination Odds Flat At Zero On Polymarket
  3. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursTalarico Democratic Nomination Odds Remain Stagnant
  4. 27%– unchanged in 24 hoursRubio Nomination Odds Hold Steady on Polymarket
  5. 8%– unchanged in 24 hoursTrump Presidency Odds Hold Steady on Polymarket

Economics

See All →
14%– unchanged in 24 hours

Polymarket Traders Doubt June Inflation Hits 3.9%

Traders are pricing in only a 14% chance that annual inflation reaches 3.9% in June, a critical indicator for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.

  1. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursPolymarket Sees Minimal Chance of 50+ BPS Rate Cut by Fed
  2. 7%– unchanged in 24 hoursPolymarket Traders See Low Odds For Narrow Brazil Inflation Target
  3. 38%– unchanged in 24 hoursBrazil 2026 Inflation Seen Unlikely to Land in Narrow Range
  4. 27%– unchanged in 24 hoursJapan Q2 GDP Growth Target Sees Low Confidence
  5. 2%– unchanged in 24 hoursJuly Inflation At 3.7% Seen As Long Shot On Polymarket

Sports

See All →
22%– unchanged in 24 hours

England World Cup Hopes Remain Subdued on Polymarket

Traders on Polymarket currently assign England a 22% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting persistent skepticism despite the tournament's distant horizon.

  1. 0%– unchanged in 24 hoursMets World Series Odds Flatline as Traders See No Path to Victory
  2. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursColts Championship Hopes Remain Dim on Polymarket
  3. 7%– unchanged in 24 hoursBraves World Series Odds Hold Steady on Polymarket
  4. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursGuardians World Series Hopes Remain Dim on Polymarket
  5. 65%– unchanged in 24 hoursFrance World Cup Final Odds Hold Steady

Tech & AI

See All →
34%– unchanged in 24 hours

OpenAI Valuation Outlook Holds Steady Below $750 Billion Mark

Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 34% probability to OpenAI reaching a $750 billion valuation by year-end, reflecting skepticism about a rapid surge in the AI firm's market capitalization.

  1. 11%– unchanged in 24 hoursUkraine Military Size Cut Before 2027 Seen Unlikely
  2. 89%– unchanged in 24 hoursSyrskyi's Tenure as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Seen Ending by 2027
  3. 2%– unchanged in 24 hoursFrance Warship Deployment in Hormuz Remains Highly Unlikely
  4. 99%– unchanged in 24 hoursAnthropic Dominates AI Model Race Ahead of July 2026 Deadline
  5. 9%– unchanged in 24 hoursOpenAI Valuation Outlook Remains Bearish on Polymarket

Crypto

See All →
1%– unchanged in 24 hours

Bitcoin All-Time High Doubts Persist on Polymarket

Traders assign a mere 1% chance to Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by September 2026, reflecting deep skepticism despite nearly $1 million in volume.

  1. 29%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $62,500 Dip in July Remains Unlikely
  2. 1%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin Holds Firm Above $42,500 Threshold
  3. 53%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $75,000 Target Remains a Coin Flip for 2026
  4. 6%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin $120,000 Target Remains Distant on Polymarket
  5. 100%– unchanged in 24 hoursBitcoin Price Expected to Hold Above $58,000 Ahead of July 11 Close

Entertainment

See All →
2%– unchanged in 24 hours

Firstuserhere Wikipedia Page Odds Remain Stagnant

Traders on Manifold currently assign only a 2% chance that a Wikipedia page for @firstuserhere will exist by the end of 2026, reflecting a low probability for public notability.

  1. 4%– unchanged in 24 hoursWorld War Three Odds Hold Steady Against Grand Theft Auto VI Release
  2. 49%– unchanged in 24 hoursChrist's Return Before GTA VI Remains Coin Flip on Manifold
  3. 12%– unchanged in 24 hoursMusk's Mars Walk Remains Distant Prospect on Prediction Markets
  4. 67%– unchanged in 24 hoursWill David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
  5. 65%– unchanged in 24 hoursHigh Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?