Recession

Track recession prediction markets and economic downturn forecasts from leading prediction platforms.

What Defines a Recession?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Unlike the popular “two consecutive quarters of GDP decline” rule, NBER considers multiple factors.

Key Indicators Monitored

Real GDP

Gross Domestic Product adjusted for inflation

Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment levels

Industrial Production

Manufacturing, mining, and utilities output

Real Income

Personal income minus transfer payments

Note: Recession declarations are made retrospectively. The NBER typically announces a recession 6-12 months after it begins, making prediction markets valuable for real-time assessment.

What Defines a Recession?

Key Indicators Monitored

Recession Markets